In 2018, the Horn of Africa seemed poised for a new era of peace and collaboration. Leaders from Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia signed a landmark cooperation agreement that ignited hope for regional unity and stability. Fast forward six years, and that optimism has largely dissipated, overshadowed by conflict and division.
The Horn of Africa, a critical geopolitical nexus linking Europe, Africa, and Asia, has long been a stage for foreign intervention and power struggles. The 2018 Joint Declaration on Comprehensive Cooperation aimed to foster political, economic, and security ties among Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. This ambitious pact was underpinned by the historic peace deal between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, which had ended a decades-long border conflict.
However, the hopes sparked by this agreement have since withered. Ethiopia has descended into ethnic strife, while regional alliances have shifted, raising fears of an impending war. The dynamics of this complex situation reveal how external influences have played a significant role in undermining the regional cooperation envisioned in 2018.
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The political landscape in the Horn of Africa changed dramatically following the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) attack on the Ethiopian national army on November 3, 2020. This attack coincided with the US presidential election, catalyzing a series of actions that would destabilize the region further.
With the TPLF having long been supported by certain factions within the US government, the subsequent reaction to the conflict was swift. The hashtag #TigrayGenocide quickly trended on social media, prompting US officials to raise alarms about potential humanitarian crises. Although a full-scale intervention did not occur, the US imposed sanctions on both Ethiopia and Eritrea, escalating tensions in an already fragile environment.
In 2022, the US intervened diplomatically to broker a peace agreement between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF. This move was perceived as favoring the TPLF and further alienating other Ethiopian groups, particularly the Amhara. Distrust brewed as the Ethiopian government attempted to disarm regional militias, leading to renewed conflict.
The fall of Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, also known as Farmaajo, further complicated the situation. His administration had been a key player in the 2018 agreement and enjoyed popular support. However, his successor, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has pivoted toward an alliance with Egypt, a nation long at odds with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. This shift has further strained relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, eroding the foundations of their cooperation.
Adding to the complexity, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s late 2023 declaration of a “historic right” to access the Red Sea signaled a drastic shift in tone. This claim exacerbated fears among Eritrea and Somalia, who perceived it as a threat, prompting them to adopt a defensive posture. The situation intensified with Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland—a region that seeks independence from Somalia—fracturing regional unity.
The role of the United States has remained a subject of scrutiny throughout these tumultuous events. While the US has publicly maintained a neutral stance regarding the conflict between Somalia, Eritrea, and Ethiopia, its actions suggest a deeper involvement. Reports indicate that US lawmakers have shown interest in strengthening ties with Somaliland, indicating a possible pivot that could further entrench divisions.
Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a close US ally, has been active in the Horn, contributing to the region’s instability. The UAE’s financial investments in Ethiopia and its support for military efforts against local militias have drawn criticism, as they appear to exacerbate internal conflicts rather than promote peace.
As the Horn of Africa grapples with these complex and interwoven conflicts, the initial hopes of 2018 seem a distant memory. The promise of cooperation has been overshadowed by rising tensions, shifting alliances, and the ever-present influence of foreign powers.
While regional actors have their own agency, external influences have significantly shaped the current landscape. The question now is whether there is a path back to cooperation or if the Horn of Africa is doomed to continue its cycle of conflict and division.
The world watches, but for the people of the Horn, the stakes could not be higher. The tragic unraveling of hope since 2018 serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of peace in a geopolitically complex region.
