Divisions within Somalia’s breakaway regions continue to undermine efforts to resolve larger geopolitical and economic issues, further destabilizing the Horn of Africa.
Somalia’s central government has issued a stern warning to regional governments and international corporations, insisting that Mogadishu will not tolerate any contracts that do not recognize the country as a unified state. The Somali leadership, grappling with decades-long efforts to assert its authority, remains adamant that Somaliland and Puntland—regions that have operated independently since 1991—must fall under the jurisdiction of the central government.
Although Somaliland and Puntland have functioned as self-declared independent states, largely ignoring successive Somali administrations in Mogadishu, the central government has made it clear that it will never accept these areas as sovereign entities. Since 1991, numerous attempts to form a stable government in Somalia have struggled against the backdrop of these internal divisions.
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Regional Tensions Escalate Over Berbera Port Deal
In recent months, diplomatic tensions have flared between Somalia and Ethiopia after the latter signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Somaliland’s President Muse Bihi Abdi. The agreement grants Ethiopia access to a section of Somaliland’s strategic Berbera port on the Red Sea, a long-coveted prize for Ethiopia, a landlocked nation historically reliant on the region’s coastal access. In return, Ethiopia agreed to recognize Somaliland as an independent state.
This move has escalated tensions in the region and, for the first time, another country has effectively accepted Somaliland’s independence. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud responded in January by signing legislation nullifying the MOU between Somaliland and Ethiopia, reinforcing Mogadishu’s position on maintaining Somalia’s territorial unity. The Somali government perceives the agreement as a direct challenge to its sovereignty, a step toward the fracturing of the nation that it cannot afford.
Historical Conflicts and Colonial Legacies
The diplomatic fallout is rooted in long-standing territorial conflicts between Somalia and Ethiopia, dating back to the colonial era when European powers carved out the borders that remain flashpoints today. The border disputes, established under colonial rule, particularly between Somalia and Ethiopia, have long fueled tensions in the region, with both countries grappling over contested lands.
The secessionist movements in Somaliland and Puntland have further complicated efforts toward peace in the Horn of Africa. Somaliland declared its independence in 1991, and Puntland followed suit in 1998, initially refraining from seeking full recognition but eventually declaring its intentions to pursue independence due to constitutional disagreements with Mogadishu in 2024.
These declarations of independence come as internal divisions continue to stymie any effort at reconciliation and stabilization within Somalia, creating an environment ripe for external interference and economic exploitation by foreign powers.
External Involvement and African Union’s Role
The Horn of Africa’s delicate geopolitical situation has been further complicated by foreign interventions. In 2006, Ethiopia, under the leadership of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), entered Somalia with the support of the United States, ostensibly to prevent the consolidation of power by the Union of Islamic Courts in Mogadishu. Ethiopia’s military involvement drew in other regional forces, including Kenya and Uganda, ultimately resulting in the creation of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), an AU-UN backed peacekeeping initiative.
Despite significant international backing and resources, AMISOM has failed to create the conditions for lasting peace. Since its inception in 2007, the mission has evolved from peacekeeping to stabilization, yet the divisions within Somalia continue to stifle any progress toward national unity. Al-Shabaab, the Islamist insurgency that remains active in Somalia, has capitalized on the country’s internal fragmentation, further destabilizing the region.
Economic and Diplomatic Implications of Division
The internal divisions within Somalia are not only a political and security threat but also carry significant economic consequences for the country and the region. In response to the MOU between Somaliland and Ethiopia, Somalia has moved to block international corporations from recognizing the breakaway territories as independent entities. Mogadishu has warned that companies failing to comply with its demands to treat Somaliland as part of a unified Somalia will face severe consequences.
According to a report published by Business Insider Africa, Somali authorities have given corporations until September 1st to revise any information on their platforms that recognizes Somaliland as an independent state. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MoCI) has invoked Somalia’s provisional constitution to pressure companies into removing any mention of Somaliland as a separate entity.
Among the corporations targeted by this directive are Ethiopian Airlines, Paysii, and Dahabshil. Ethiopian Airlines, which operates flights from Mogadishu to Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, has been asked to stop listing Hargeisa as a destination in an independent country, a move that could have far-reaching consequences for the airline and the wider region’s economic dynamics.
Limited Options for Somalia’s Government
Faced with these challenges, Somalia’s central government is in a precarious position. Dependent on the support of the African Union (AU) and United Nations (UN), which in turn rely heavily on financial assistance from the United States and the European Union (EU), Somalia’s ability to impose its will on the breakaway regions is severely limited.
Even with promises of military assistance from Egypt, which pledged to provide support to Somalia earlier this year, the deployment of additional Somali forces on the ground remains a logistical and strategic challenge. Egypt’s involvement has added another layer of complexity to the situation, with Ethiopia viewing Cairo’s actions through the lens of its ongoing dispute with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The unresolved tensions over the Nile’s water resources have created yet another point of contention in an already volatile region.
Corporate Interests and the Risk of Escalation
The Somali government’s efforts to compel corporations to side with its position on Somaliland have only increased the stakes. For international businesses, the choice between recognizing Mogadishu’s authority or pursuing lucrative contracts in Somaliland is fraught with risks. Should they continue to operate in Somaliland under independent contracts, these firms may find themselves blacklisted by Mogadishu, leading to broader economic repercussions across the region.
The divisions in Somalia, rooted in its colonial past, continue to shape the present-day realities of the Horn of Africa. The legacies of Italian and British colonial rule, which divided the region into separate territories, laid the groundwork for the current crisis. Somaliland and Puntland’s assertions of independence are deeply intertwined with this colonial history, and efforts to reunite the country face significant hurdles.
Pan-Africanism and Unity as a Path Forward
The lack of unity in Somalia not only threatens its own national integrity but also poses a broader challenge to the vision of Pan-Africanism. The fragmentation of Somalia, along with the ongoing territorial disputes in the Horn of Africa, is a stark reminder of the dangers of neo-colonialism and the enduring impact of imperialism on the African continent.
While the AU and other regional bodies have expressed their desire for stability in Somalia, the absence of a unified Pan-African foreign policy has limited their ability to resolve the deep-seated conflicts in the region. The internal divisions within Somalia, along with the external pressures from Ethiopia, Egypt, and other regional powers, only serve to reinforce the need for a broader, unified approach to peace and development in the Horn of Africa.
In a region rich with resources and strategic importance, the lack of cooperation and unity is a lost opportunity for all parties involved. A united Somalia, working in concert with its neighbors, could play a pivotal role in advancing development and security throughout the region, while also contributing to the broader Pan-African struggle against imperialism and neo-colonialism.
As Somalia continues to grapple with its internal divisions, the stakes are higher than ever. The future of the Horn of Africa—and the continent as a whole—may well depend on the resolution of these conflicts and the realization of the dream of African unity.
