As Rwanda prepares for its presidential and parliamentary elections on July 15th, the country stands at a decisive moment. These elections will significantly impact Rwanda’s political future and its international relationships. Central to these elections is the candidacy of incumbent President Paul Kagame, who has been in power for over 24 years and is seeking a fourth term.
Kagame has historically won elections by large margins, securing over 90% of the vote in 2003, 2010, and 2017. However, his extended rule has sparked debates about democratic governance and the concentration of power.
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A key moment in Rwanda’s political evolution came in December 2015 when a constitutional amendment removed presidential term limits, enabling Kagame to run for and win a third term in 2017. This amendment, supported by a referendum, has drawn both support and criticism.
“The removal of term limits raises questions about the consolidation of power and the long-term implications for Rwanda’s democracy,” noted Evelyne Shiga, a graduate of the Kigali Institute of Education (KIE) and advocate for democratic governance.
Opposition figures, such as Frank Habineza, leader of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda (DGPR), are challenging Kagame in the upcoming election. “Despite the challenges, our candidacy represents hope for democratic values and pluralism in Rwanda,” Habineza stated during a campaign rally in Kigali.
Opposition candidates face significant hurdles. Victoire Ingabire, leader of the United Democratic Forces (FDU-Inkingi), has encountered legal obstacles preventing her from running. Herman Manirareba, advocating for the restoration of Rwanda’s monarchy, failed to meet legal requirements for an independent candidacy. Innocent Hakizimana, a schoolteacher from Nyabihu District, is campaigning for improved living conditions and education reform, representing grassroots efforts for change.
Despite these various candidacies, Kagame and Habineza remain the primary contenders due to constitutional and legal challenges faced by others. The parliamentary elections, using a proportional representation system, aim to ensure diverse representation, including seats for women, youth, and people with disabilities.
“While Rwanda has made significant strides in economic development and social stability, concerns remain about political repression and human rights abuses,” commented John Migorozi, a truck driver from Rwanda to Burundi.
The elections are closely watched internationally, particularly by key partners like the United Kingdom. The outcome could affect Rwanda’s global standing and its relations with these partners.
“Rwanda’s future hinges on the conduct and results of the election. The outcome will shape the country’s trajectory and its relations with the international community,” emphasized Anwarite Antony Sashay from KIE.
Kagame’s past electoral victories, especially the 2017 election where he won 99% of the votes, have raised concerns about the fairness of the electoral process. “Despite the appearance of a multi-party system, Kagame’s Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) has limited the field of presidential candidates,” remarked political analyst Evelyne Shiga.
