President Kais Saied has clinched a decisive victory in Tunisia’s recent presidential election, receiving 90.7% of the vote, according to the Independent High Authority for Elections. This win consolidates his power following a term marked by significant political upheaval and the imprisonment of numerous opponents.
Saied’s election comes against a backdrop of growing concerns regarding the state of democracy in Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab Spring. Critics warn that the election reflects a trend toward authoritarianism, reminiscent of the era under former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. University of Tunis law professor Sghayer Zakraoui remarked that the political landscape is shifting back toward “the absolute power of a single man,” with Saied positioning himself as a leader with a “messianic message.”
Saied’s closest challenger, businessman Ayachi Zammel, garnered just 7.4% of the vote, having spent much of the campaign in prison due to multiple sentences for election-related offenses. The election, however, was overshadowed by a dismal voter turnout of only 28.8%, signaling widespread apathy among Tunisia’s 9.7 million eligible voters. This participation rate is notably lower than in previous elections, highlighting growing disillusionment with the political process.
The election process faced significant challenges, with many of Saied’s most prominent opponents barred from running. Opposition parties boycotted the election, labeling it a sham in light of Tunisia’s deteriorating political environment and the increasing authoritarian tendencies of Saied’s administration.
Despite the electoral victory, analysts suggest Saied’s win may undermine rather than strengthen his authority. Tarek Megerisi of the European Council on Foreign Relations commented that the president will return to office “undermined” by the electoral context.
Amidst this political turmoil, critics remain resolute in their opposition. Freelance filmmaker Amri Sofien expressed a sentiment of despair, stating, “It’s possible that after 20 years our kids will protest… There is no hope in this country.”
This disillusionment contrasts sharply with the optimism that characterized Tunisia in 2011, when citizens successfully ousted Ben Ali, demanding “bread, freedom, and dignity.” Following that revolution, the country made strides toward democracy, implementing a new constitution and establishing institutions aimed at promoting justice and accountability.
However, subsequent years saw rising political infighting, economic challenges, and social unrest. Saied, initially perceived as an outsider promising to combat corruption, capitalized on this discontent to win his first term in 2019. His consolidation of power in 2021, which included suspending parliament and rewriting the constitution, drew comparisons to a coup among critics.
Following the approval of his proposed constitution in a referendum, authorities intensified repression against dissent, targeting political opponents, activists, and journalists. The crackdown has raised alarms about the future of civil society in Tunisia, with prominent figures imprisoned on various charges, including inciting disorder and violating controversial laws aimed at curbing misinformation.
As Tunisia navigates this precarious political landscape, the implications of Saied’s recent electoral victory remain uncertain, with many fearing for the country’s democratic future.
